The Waiting Game...

Its curtains for Phase I of endless speculations. The people's verdict has been unravelled.It stands clearly in favour of the Congress and its "pre-poll" allies(read Trinamool Congress,DMK and NCP). The Congress notched up surprising victories in UP, AP, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and those on predicted lines in Kerala, Punjab and Haryana, thus conjuring up an impressive total of 206--up 61 seats from elections 2004,also its best performance since 1991. I'm having to eat my words. The mandate was not a fractured one after all.  

Its now time for the poor people on the telly to fill the air time untill the new Ministry is sworn-in.Phase two of endless speculations.Who will hold which Ministry?How will the allies be accomodated?Will Mulayam and/or Lalu(forget the loser Paswan) be roped in to bridge the numbers.What are the information that the "sources" are providing?Will we see more of youth being inducted?No we cannot wait for official press briefings.We'll go on speculating, pester politicians into spilling the beans, "cut across to the residence of..."(as though pamphlets are being handed out there) and speculate further with a new set of anchors and "analysts".The media just cannot wait.They cannot--its suicidal.Particularly since, election coverage is to NDTV, Times Now and CNN-IBN what IPL is to Sony Max--the formula to quick megabucks.

Its Rahul Gandhi who's being lauded for electoral victories across the country, particularly in UP.Congressmen from all over the country are lauding him, calling for his inclusion in the Union Cabinet, unequivocal when it comes to him donning the PM's mantle--its only a matter of time, they say.One can't blame them--on one hand their perceived proximity and loyalty to the Nehru-Gandhi parivar is their ticket to ascending the party ranks;on the other, its true that the 'Gandhi' name does rake in votes.Overt ambition, in Indian tradition, is seen as evil.We're an India that respects shunning of power. Rahul Gandhi has played that part to perfection.He has repeatedly said that he prefers to stick to organising the party youth brigade,"bring more youth into politics", focus on understanding rural India and the like.In my humble opinion, Rahul "baba" would do well to resist the temptations of power, like his mother very prudently did in May 2004, atleast until the new government completes a couple of years in office.Its the worst kept secret in Indian politics that Indira Gandhi's "raja beta" will have to follow her footsteps as PM.

The "other names doing the rounds" are those of Jyotiraditya Scindia, Sandeep Dixit,Sachin Pilot, Milin Deora, Jitin Prasad,Priya Dutt and Supriya Sule(all second generation Congress/NCP 'leaders') as likely contenders for induction into the Union Cabinet.Kamal Nath, Kapil Sibal, PC and Pranabda are sure to retain Cabinet berths.Antony is likely to retain the Defence portfolio.Speculating newsmen are also talking of either Ghulam Nabi Azad or Salman Khursheed making it as the Muslim face of the government.

There is talk of Shashi Tharoor being MoS of the MEA.Shashi should shun the offer,if something of this sort comes his way, and focus entirely on fulfilling poll promises to the people of his constituency--Thiruvananthapuram.The people here don't have a history of returning their MPs to Parliament in succesive elections which is reason enough for Shashi to stay back in Tvm, use his "global contacts" to make a Boston of the place, remove hurdles in the face of and complete the promising Vizhinjam Int'l Trans-shipment Project and fine-tune his Malayalam(though the issue was not much of an issue after all, as the elections proved).The 2014 elections is where Tharoor stands a decent chance of a Cabinet berth(provided the Congress wins again).He could campaign thus:"Vote for me and get yourself a Cabinet Minister"-a plank the Tvm people will certainly buy considering the fact that they voted overwhelmingly for the BJP's O Rajagopal in anticipation of an NDA victory in the 2004 polls.

The clamour for youth is all very right.We certainly don't want more Arjun Singhs in the Cabinet.But blindly doling out porfolios to the youth is not desirable either.Priya Dutt, Supriya Sule, Milin Deora and Jitin Prasada all have dubious administrative skills. Naveen Jindal would've been a better choice.A Union Cabinet is just not the place for them to begin their innings.

With Lalu Yadav claiming that he was always with the UPA and (Rajiv Shukla of the Congress claimed otherwise) the Trinamool Congress nowbeing the Congress' largest ally in the coalition, there could well be a tussle for the Railway Ministry between him and Mamta Banerjee.The odds are stacked heavily against Lalu who , with his party witnessing an embarassing drubbing, has very little or no bargaining power.The DMK is likley to demand the Shipping&Land Transport and Telecommunication&IT Ministries apart from a host of MoS portfolios.Dayanidhi Maran is back in favour with the Karunanidhi family and therefore may make a comeback to the Cabinet.So may TR Baalu.

Elections 2009--India (in)Decisive

Less than 48 hours to go before the verdict is out. Beating the heat,  star campaigners and their faithful sweated it  out in maidans across the stretch of this bewildering nation, asking over 700 million voters to make themselves count.All five phases of polling have been completed with the mattering millions defying the heat, boycott-calls, militant-maoist threats and turning up in huge numbers.Scores of security personnel, people and even candidates have lost their lives in what are presumably, the bloodiest elections till date. 

Despite not having to encounter any of the aforesaid threats, on April 16,2009,  I cast my maiden vote, thus being part of a massive exercise--one, whose scale and complexity is a nonpareil.Undecided until the nth hour, I decided,hesitantly to vote for the Congress(I).In the newly-formed constituency of Pathanamthitta, the main contenders in the fray were Mr Anto Antony of the Congress(I) and Advocate Ananthagopan of the CPI(M). Radhakrishna Menon of the BJP, the BSP candidate KK Nair, NCP's Mani C Kappan and a host of others constituted the also-rans.Mr Antony is currently the District Congress Committee President of the neighbouring Kottayam district, who had in 2004, unsuccessfully contested from his home turf.That he is a stranger to Pathanamthitta would be not be just one among "the nefarious campaigns of the oppostion"--its the blatant truth.Mr Ananthagopan has been a familiar face in my native Tiruvalla Assembly segment. He currently serves as the District Secretary of the CPI(M) in Pathanamthitta.

Three years of Lal salaams have failed to enthuse me.I was one of those who, in my naivete, joined the bandwagon of current CM VS's supporters as he managed to pour Red across the state during the 2006 Assembly elections. He was hailed as the saviour Kerala had been waiting for. The media painted him as the crusader against corruption, the champion of adivasi and women rights and as ardent environmentalist. True,as Oppositon Leader of the Kerala Legislative Assembly from 2001 to 2006, VS had done both himself and the State a creditable job. He had endeared himself to the prince and pauper alike, thanks to considerable media support, so much so that when the State committee declared that he wouldn't be contesting it sparked off a furore across the party machinery. The party cadre split, clandestine posters and protest marches rebuking the move appeared in VS strongholds. Karat had to fly in. The fault lines of factionalism in the cadre-party were rearing its ugly head again. Fearing a backlash, the CPI(M) retracted. A visibly delighted VS emerged from the party meeting. What followed in the media was a VS centric-campaign projecting the octogenarian's enviable energy-levels, austere lifestyle, humble beginnings and probity in public life. The sufferings that he had to endure, during the Punnapra-Vayalar Revolt--the Communist uprising against the Travancore administration of Sir CP Ramaswami Iyer-- of 1946 formed part of local folklore. He seemed only too pleased to oblige. T-shirts bearing VS pictures started doing the rounds, almost reminding one of similar Che Guevara ones.

Ever since assuming office in May 2006, one hasn't seen the promise translate into performance.VS was part of a Ministry that had more of Party State Secretary Pinarayi Vijayan--supposedly the official,stronger faction--loyalists.Coordination between ministries was a problem and it not only dented people’s faith in the government, it also brought down the government’s performance. In-fighting was on show for all to see--contradictory statements were being issued from AKG Bhavan and the Secretariat. Machinations, corruption, scandals, maladministration--the 3 year old LDF government has offered nothing different. VS has been left powerless and fettered in a Ministry where the CM dare not call the shots.Nevertheless, his popularity and image as a straight-talking CM remains intact with his ratings standing at an enviable 34p.c.

Lets leave the State government aside. What did my MP, one of the 18 Left MPs from Kerala, do, worthy of note? Ms CS has been visible only during dharnas and protests of Left MPs in front of the Parliament complex. Fruitless protests, if you ask me.Ostentatious too. And apart from an Ambulance doing the rounds in Tiruvalla, I haven't seen any utilisation of her MP LADs scheme.My disenchantment with the communists has other reasons too. I believe every nation should build from Communist and socialist ideals. So too should every state.Kerala has and which is why, I believe, it has a high HDI comparable with that of the US.But there comes a time when socialism and communism should be not 'The' policy, it should be just one of them.I have, from my experiences, found myself becoming increasingly moderate.Communism that calls for revolution, that outrightly rejects the US and Israel no-matter-what,  is an extreme ideology.The Congress(I) is the only other party in the fray, which although for purely political gains, comes closest to pursuing an eclectic, moderate stance. These are reasons, I believe, which prompted former UN Under-Secretary General, Shashi Tharoor, to run for Parliament on a Congress ticket.

Almost all news channels have predicted a rout for the Left parties in Kerala, with the people rejecting the CPM's alliance with Abdul Nasser Madani's PDP,allegedly a ploy to hush-up the SNC Lavalin issue--a scandal in which Pinarayi Vijayan is among the prime accused--and to eat into the Muslim vote. The ploy has backfired on both counts. The floating voter will definitely be influenced by Vijayan's tainted image.The Muslim vote has traditionally been for the Congress-led UDF, with the 2004 black-out sure to prove an aberration. The alliance will also repel the upper caste Hindus. They've, however, been able to hold on to the Ezhava-Dalit vote, their loyal votebank. The UDF certainly cannot claim a mandate in their favour, Kerala's history has been replete with swings alternating with every election. There is certainly an anti-incumbency sentiment. Moreover,they've done nothing in the Opposition to inspire. Would we vote for the Dr at the centre?Certainly.But we here in Kerala, as I'm sure do people in other states, vote according to local temperatures.

Now for the tamasha on the telly.Arnab Goswami, has clearly been spending sleepless nights.He appears disturbed, obstinate, worn-out and even childish at times getting into near fights with his political guests. Rajdeep Sardesai, too has been building up a lot of hype and noise. The only sane voices appeared to be the troika of Prannoy Roy, Barkha Dutt and Nidhi Razdan on NDTV.The entire gist of the endless, seemingly meaningless discussions, that interestinlgy is vying for prime-time with IPL coverage, is to find out that magical combination that will constitute the government of the 15th Lok Sabha.The media is doggedly behind every move that the political honchos make, so much so that "third front" man HD Jr. had to cover his face coming out after a late-night meeting at 10 Janpath, trying in vain to escape incognito. His father even had to issue a clarification, saying the HDs and their JD was firmly with the "third-front".Every statement is being intently read into.An off-the-record statement is being seen as "information from sources".Attempts of the two major National Parties,who btw are confident that they wont garner enough votes for a comfortable majority, to woo regional parties are almost being reported from inside close-door meetings.This is what is being debated in studios for hours on end.Why this may appear meaningless is because it is obvious that political parties can do nothing except backroom negotiations until the numbers are revealed on the 16th.Why it is not is because all the speculations and discussions predicated on them offer the viewing masses ample opportunity to decipher what-exactly-is-going-on.

Whatever happens it is clear that the elections are going to deliver a fractured mandate. The voter has voted with a feel for state temperatures.India Indecisive.Couldn't put it better...